INSIGHTS · INDICATORS

ADR% Calculation — Intraday Range Is Not Expected Return

2026-08-06 · Updated 2026-10-05 · Indicators

ADR% averages ratios of daily high to low. It does not calculate direction, target-hit probability or account risk. This site's high/low measure does not separately include the gap from the previous close to the next open.

Reproduce the site's formula

ADR% = [mean of high / low over the latest 20 sessions − 1] × 100

Two hypothetical sessions with high/low pairs 105/100 and 110/100 have a two-session illustrative ADR of 7.5%. Averaging highs and lows first and then dividing is a different formula. The site uses 20 sessions and rounds to two decimals. Missing lows and provider anomalies can affect the result.

Frozen medians differ

On 2026-10-02, the full U.S. sample's median ADR was 3.53%, while eight-condition passers had 3.47%. Korea had 4.95% overall and 5.75% among passers. The claim that qualification necessarily selects higher range is not true for this U.S. snapshot. Market universes also differ; these medians are not entry thresholds.

Range is different from planned loss

Price 100 and ADR 5% do not predict that tomorrow stays between 95 and 105. An average omits the distribution, extremes and gaps. Entry at 100 with a planned exit at 98 implies risk of 2, but a gap to 90 can cause a different fill. An ADR-based exit still has execution risk.

Comparability checks

Match the period, high/low definition and date, then inspect volume and adjustment history. Claims that higher ADR increases target-hit probability or lower ADR is safe need separate forward-return validation. This site does not supply that probability.

Data and corrections

See the methodology for calculation rules and the 2026-10-02 signal-disagreement study for the frozen sample. Report a date and URL through contact when you find an error.

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