TSS (Trend Strength Score) — is the market paying trend traders?
Traditional market dashboards ask whether the indexes are going up. Trend Screener's TSS (Trend Strength Score) asks a different question: is the market actually rewarding trend-following and breakout trading right now? There are tapes where the index sits at highs while every breakout fails, and tapes where the index drifts sideways while leader breakouts follow through cleanly. The TSS quantifies that difference as a weighted blend of three components.
- Breadth (20 pts) — the share of all stocks above their 50- and 200-day lines plus the new-high/new-low ratio. Filters out the illusion of strength when a few mega-caps carry the index.
- Institutional Flow (10 pts) — buying vs selling pressure from big money. A session is an accumulation day when the composite gains 0.2%+ on dollar volume (price×volume) above the prior session, a distribution day when it loses 0.2%+ on rising dollar volume; both are counted over a rolling 25-session window (older observations expire automatically). Dollar volume — not raw share count — keeps a few penny/high-turnover names from dominating, and the score is weighted toward distribution (the topping signal) so bear-rally accumulation days can't cancel a distribution warning. Breadth answers "how many stocks are participating" (the current state); Institutional Flow answers "are institutions accumulating or distributing" (the pressure) — and pressure moves first.
- Index Trend (5 pts) — four checks (above the 50DMA, above the 200DMA, both rising) on Trend Screener's own composite built from the entire universe — no external index feed. It is scored on both a cap-weighted composite (mega-caps / headline) and an equal-weighted one (the average stock / breadth), so when a few large names hold the index up while the average stock breaks down — a mega-cap divergence — the component drops and the card flags it.
Reading the score bands
77+ Strong Trend means pressing breakouts is being rewarded; 59–77 Healthy Trend is the normal operating regime. In 41–59 Neutral, be selective and size down. In 23–41 Weak Trend, minimize new buys and tighten stops. Below 23, Risk Off — cash is the position; breakout entries in this band statistically suffer both lower win rates and worse payoffs. All three axes at neutral put the total at exactly 50, so the neutral band 41–59 is centred on that midpoint in even 18-point steps. The direction and the band transitions matter more than the absolute number: crossing down through a band boundary is the cue to cut exposure, and climbing out of Risk Off is the cue to build a watchlist.
Reading Institutional Flow (accumulation vs distribution)
Big money cannot buy or sell in a single day, so it leaves footprints. Stacking up-days on rising volume (accumulation) means institutions are building positions; stacking down-days on rising volume (distribution) means they are handing out inventory even while the tape rallies. Net flow (accumulation minus distribution days) of +4 or better reads as demand in control; −4 or worse as risk-off supply pressure. As a rule of thumb, 4–5 distribution days inside 25 sessions is a warning and 6–7+ is heavy pressure — especially when the index sits near highs and the distribution days cluster tightly, a classic topping signature. Watch the card's 25-session timeline for red (accumulation) versus blue (distribution) clusters: even when breakouts still work, building distribution is the cue to size down new entries.
What each metric means
- Passing-stock count — how many names clear all eight conditions each day. A rising count is broad strength; a sharp drop signals the trend is weakening.
- Average RS of passers — the mean relative strength of passing stocks. Higher means the leaders are stronger.
- Share closing up — the percentage of stocks closing higher (breadth). If the index rises but this is low, only a few mega-caps moved.
- Near-high count — the trend of stocks close to a 52-week high. Rising means strength is spreading broadly.
- 52-week new lows — stocks closing within 1% of their 52-week low (whole screened universe). A rising count while the index holds up warns that the market's internals are breaking down; in a decline, new lows drying up is a leading sign that selling pressure is exhausted.
- 52-week new highs — stocks closing within 1% of their 52-week high (whole screened universe). A narrower, stricter yardstick than the near-high count (passers within 3%), it shows whether actual new highs keep printing. Expanding new highs with new lows drying up marks the healthiest trend regime.
Scaling aggression to the regime
Combine the direction of the S&P 500 / Nasdaq 200-day line with the metrics above. When the index rises above its 200-day and passing counts and up-share climb together, it’s an attack regime — press leader breakouts. When the index holds but breadth deteriorates (only mega-caps rise), cut new buys. When the index loses its 200-day, shift to defense and raise cash.
The Follow-Through Day — confirming a bottom
A classic way to confirm that a falling market has truly turned is William O’Neil’s “Follow-Through Day.” After the index makes a low and attempts to rally, a day on which a major index rises strongly (typically +1.5% or more) on heavier volume, several days into that attempt, is read as confirmation of a turn. It carries more weight when it coincides with rising passing-stock counts and advancing ratios on this page.
Divergence is what to watch
The regime to respect most is a “divergence” — the index at new highs while breadth deteriorates. If a handful of mega-caps hold up the index while passing counts and the advancing ratio fall, the market’s internals are weakening despite the surface strength. That’s the time to cut new buys and tighten stops on existing positions.